In the ancient world kings and emperors regularly sought advice from the Oracle at Delphi when making important decisions. The Oracle would respond to questions, sometimes in poetry, other times in prose, in a manner that sometimes required some interpreting. For example, King Croesus of Lydia asked about the wisdom of his taking on the Persian empire. The Oracle replied that “If you attack you will destroy a great kingdom.” Proving that one should always ask for details, Croesus lost the battle and the Persians, under Cyrus the Great, conquered his kingdom.
Some say that the closest thing we have to the Oracle at Delphi today is the triumvirate of the federal banking regulators, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC and the OCC. The “Oracle” prognosticates and bankers guide their business activities accordingly. Well, perhaps. There was that prediction back in 2006 called “Concentrations in Commercial Real Estate Lending, Sound Risk Management Policies” when the regulators pointed out that CRE concentration levels at community banks had increased from 156% of total risk based capital in 1993 to 318% in the third quarter of 2006. They noted that some banks had begun to relax underwriting standards as a result of strong completion for such loans. Overall, the guidance was a “soft” sort of warning that bankers needed to make sure they understood how to manage the risk they were undertaking. A year or so later the economy was collapsing and banks beginning to fail.